Current indicator score
Neutral+0.61
Between the undervalued and overheated boundaries.
-0.30+1.50
Other indicator MVRV Z-Score+0.90 · Neutral
Bitcoin market position
Check Bitcoin bottoms, tops and halving cycles with on-chain indicators.
Data as of Daily data · not live
Estimated cycle bottom range
Thermocap Z-Score · Cycle compression model
-0.35 ~ +0.25
Estimated bottom price$37,406 ~ $60,967
Price equivalent with reference-date on-chain values held fixed
- Trend model center
- +0.22
- Observed cycle low
- +0.252026-06-30
Estimated cycle peak range +1.44 ~ +2.39
The current score is above the forecast bottom range.
Method and records 3 cycles
Peaks follow a completed-cycle decay trend; bottoms use a signed linear trend. A weaker observed peak compresses the projected bottom amplitude.
These are the model's 5th–95th percentiles conditional on elapsed time and the observed extrema. The model considers both a future lower trough and the observed low remaining the final cycle bottom.
Width combines forward-validation errors, disagreement between linear and log trends, and a design allowance of half the latest completed bottom magnitude, with a 0.10 Z minimum.
Based on 3 completed cycles and 1 forward-validation cases without future data. The sample is too small to calibrate real-world interval coverage; this does not imply a 90% hit rate.
The conditional forecast median is +0.25. Fixed undervaluation boundaries and estimated cycle lows are different references. The observed low may change while the cycle is ongoing.
Historical indicator lows occurred 26~44 months after a halving. About 30 months have elapsed in this cycle. This does not predict the date of a price bottom.
| Halving cycle | Highest score | Lowest score |
|---|---|---|
| 1th2012.11~ | +2.672013-04-09 | -1.352015-01-14 |
| 2th2016.07~ | +2.982017-12-16 | -0.362020-03-12 |
| 3th2020.05~ | +2.282021-02-21 | -0.332022-11-21 |
| 4th Ongoing2024.04~ | +1.44~+2.39Model range · observed +1.44 | -0.35~+0.25Model range · observed +0.25 |
Current indicator score
Neutral+0.90
Between the undervalued and overheated boundaries.
+0.10+5.00
Other indicator Thermocap Z-Score+0.61 · Neutral
Estimated cycle bottom range
MVRV Z-Score · Cycle compression model
-0.37 ~ +0.18
Estimated bottom price$42,512 ~ $59,375
Price equivalent with reference-date on-chain values held fixed
- Trend model center
- -0.13
- Observed cycle low
- +0.182026-06-30
Estimated cycle peak range +3.35 ~ +6.55
The current score is above the forecast bottom range.
Method and records 3 cycles
Peaks follow a completed-cycle decay trend; bottoms use a signed linear trend. A weaker observed peak compresses the projected bottom amplitude.
These are the model's 5th–95th percentiles conditional on elapsed time and the observed extrema. The model considers both a future lower trough and the observed low remaining the final cycle bottom.
Width combines forward-validation errors, disagreement between linear and log trends, and a design allowance of half the latest completed bottom magnitude, with a 0.10 Z minimum.
Based on 3 completed cycles and 1 forward-validation cases without future data. The sample is too small to calibrate real-world interval coverage; this does not imply a 90% hit rate.
The conditional forecast median is +0.18. Fixed undervaluation boundaries and estimated cycle lows are different references. The observed low may change while the cycle is ongoing.
Historical indicator lows occurred 26~30 months after a halving. About 30 months have elapsed in this cycle. This does not predict the date of a price bottom.
| Halving cycle | Highest score | Lowest score |
|---|---|---|
| 1th2012.11~ | +10.662013-04-09 | -0.602015-01-14 |
| 2th2016.07~ | +10.092017-12-07 | -0.492018-12-15 |
| 3th2020.05~ | +7.152021-02-21 | -0.362022-11-09 |
| 4th Ongoing2024.04~ | +3.35~+6.55Model range · observed +3.35 | -0.37~+0.18Model range · observed +0.18 |
Reference price $81,499
From all-time high -34.7%
All-time high $124,824
An indicator-score estimate, not a guaranteed price bottom or a range the market must reach.
Indicator charts
Selecting an indicator also updates the summaryMarket cap and realized cap
The black line is market cap; the blue line is realized cap, based on prices when coins last moved. Market cap below realized cap means an MVRV ratio below 1.
Market and realized cap (log scale)
Enable zoom to drag or pinch. Chart time axes move together; dashed lines mark halvings.
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On-chain scores at an assumed price
Enter a price or move the slider to calculate the selected indicator's Z-Score.
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Thermocap Z-Score at the assumed price
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Enter a price.
Only the assumed price changes. Supply, realized cap, cumulative issuance rewards and prior observations remain fixed at the reference date. This is not a forecast of future scores or returns.
Historical results under similar conditions
Historical results do not guarantee future returnsHistorical results by halving and score
Select a row to see historical observations
| Condition | Positive rate | Median return | Positive rate | Median return | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① Halving timing only | – | – | – | – | ||
Current position in the halving cycle
Historical returns at this cycle timing
After 6 monthsAfter 1 year
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| ② At or below the current score | – | – | – | – | ||
Historical results at the current score
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These are historical positive-return rates, not future probabilities. Daily observations have overlapping holding periods and are not independent.
How to read the indicators
Underlying reference values
- Market cap
- $1,637,978,914,273
- Realized cap
- $1,082,203,451,269
- MVRV ratio
- 1.51×
- Thermocap ratio
- 17.27×
Amounts are in USD as of the data date. Realized cap values coins at their last-moved prices; it does not fully reproduce investors' actual purchase costs.
Thermocap Z
Market cap is compared with cumulative issuance rewards in the available data. Historically, lower ratios indicate undervalued zones and higher ratios indicate overheated zones. These are reference signals.
MVRV Z-Score
It compares market cap with the last-moved prices of coins, using a common on-chain valuation measure shown here as a supplementary reference.
The table shows historical returns after low-zone signals. Review the sample sizes and conditions as well.
Indicator
1 year later
Positive rate 2 years later
Positive rate After lows
1-year return Low/high
Return spread
Positive rate 2 years later
Positive rate After lows
1-year return Low/high
Return spread
Valuation-zone boundaries
Thermocap Z is undervalued below −0.30 and overheated at +1.50 or higher. MVRV Z is undervalued below +0.10 and overheated at +5.00 or higher. Values between these boundaries are neutral.
The fixed valuation zones and estimated cycle-bottom range are different references. Scores are neither prices nor returns, and indicator lows can occur on different dates from price lows.
Note: There are few independent Bitcoin cycles. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes; these indicators are educational references.
Historical Bitcoin tops and bottoms
Historical drawdown episodes after all-time highs with declines of at least 60% are selected below. The Peak and the lowest price before the next all-time high, Low, are listed for each episode. These are historical records rather than forecasts.
| Period | Peak | Low | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $29.032011-06-08 | $2.112011-11-18 | -92.7% |
| 2013 | $2312013-04-09 | $66.342013-07-06 | -71.2% |
| 2013~2015 | $1,1352013-12-04 | $1762015-01-14 | -84.5% |
| 2017~2018 | $19,6412017-12-16 | $3,1852018-12-15 | -83.8% |
| 2021~2022 | $67,5422021-11-08 | $15,7582022-11-09 | -76.7% |
| 2025~ Current Ongoing | $124,8242025-10-06 | $58,5252026-06-30 | -53.1% |
Prices are CoinMetrics daily observations and update automatically as new data becomes available.
Risks outside the indicators
Interest rates, liquidity, regulation and exchange failures can produce moves that differ from historical on-chain patterns.
Quantum computing and cryptographic migration
A sufficiently capable quantum computer could threaten Bitcoin's current signature scheme. Timing, migration, exposed public keys and lost wallets remain uncertain. These structural risks are not reflected in the indicator scores.
Bitcoin indicators, bottoms, tops and halvings: FAQ
Is Bitcoin near a bottom or a top now?
As of 2026-10-14, Thermocap Z-Score is +0.61 (neutral) and MVRV Z-Score is +0.90 (neutral). The daily reference price is $81,499. These indicator zones do not confirm a price bottom or top.
What are Bitcoin on-chain indicators?
On-chain indicators use blockchain-derived data to compare Bitcoin's market value with another reference. This page calculates MVRV Z from market cap and realized cap, and Thermocap Z from market cap relative to cumulative USD issuance rewards in the available data.
How is the estimated Bitcoin cycle bottom score calculated?
The conditional forecast range is -0.35 ~ +0.25 for Thermocap Z and -0.37 ~ +0.18 for MVRV Z. Peak scores use a decay trend; bottom scores use a signed linear trend and compression inferred from the peak observed in the current cycle. Historical timing frequencies and the observed extrema condition the final-cycle forecast. Range width includes forward-validation errors, differences between trend models and a design allowance of half the last completed bottom magnitude, with a 0.10 Z minimum. There are 3 completed cycles and 1 forward-validation cases. The 5th–95th model percentiles are not a calibrated 90% hit rate or a Bitcoin price forecast.
How should Bitcoin top signals be read?
This page labels Thermocap Z below −0.30 as undervalued and at least +1.50 as overheated. MVRV Z is undervalued below +0.10 and overheated at least +5.00. Intermediate values are neutral. An overheated zone does not confirm that Bitcoin has reached its price top.
How does the Bitcoin halving relate to cycle bottoms?
Bitcoin's block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks. A halving date is not a price-bottom forecast. The latest halving used here is 2024.04; about 30 months have elapsed. Historical comparisons use the time since each halving and the indicator scores, with few independent cycles.
Can these indicators be used alone for Bitcoin investing?
No. On-chain valuations do not capture every liquidity, interest-rate, regulation or exchange risk. Historical returns may overlap and are not independent future probabilities. This tool provides educational references rather than buy or sell recommendations.
Does entering the estimated Bitcoin bottom range guarantee a recovery?
No. A model range can be missed, revised or followed by further losses. The lowest indicator score and the lowest Bitcoin price can occur on different dates. The calculator changes only the assumed price while holding the reference-date inputs fixed.
Data sources and methodology
Data as of · UTC daily observations · not a live quote. Method and layout updated 2026-10-14.
Published by BUSTUDY. Source: CoinMetrics network-data documentation and its Community API. Input metrics: CapMrktCurUSD, CapMVRVCur, IssTotUSD and PriceUSD.
- Realized cap = market cap ÷ MVRV ratio. MVRV Z = (market cap − realized cap) ÷ the expanding standard deviation of market cap.
- Thermocap uses the cumulative USD issuance rewards in the available data. The log of market cap divided by this cumulative amount is standardized using the expanding mean and standard deviation.
- Historical returns, model ranges and observed cycle records are different outputs. A small number of independent cycles limits inference.
Daily on-chain indicator CSV · Thermocap Z history · Bitcoin protocol documentation
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