Bitcoin Buy Timing
Use on-chain data to instantly see if Bitcoin is near a bottom or a top.
📊 Historical Buy Statistics
| Condition | 6-Month Win Rate | 6-Month Median | 1-Year Win Rate | 1-Year Median |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① Halving Timing Only | – | – | – | – | ||||
⛏️ Where Are We in the Halving Cycle?
If bought at the same point in past cycles
6M Later1Y Later
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| ② Score ≤ current | – | – | – | – | ||||
📊 How Did This Score Perform in the Past?
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| ③ Timing + Score | – | – | – | – | ||||
Market Cap vs. Realized Cap
The blue line is the investors' average cost basis (realized cap). When market cap (black) dips below it, investors are on average at a loss — historically a bottom signal.
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What Do These Indicators Mean?
Thermocap Z Recommended
Compares Bitcoin's current market cap to the total cumulative miner rewards since genesis. Historically, a low ratio signals 'cheap' (bottom zone) and a high ratio signals 'expensive' (overheated). It has correctly identified all 13 past cycle bottoms and tops.
MVRV Z-Score Reference
The most widely used on-chain metric, comparing market cap to investors' average cost basis (realized cap). Shown here for reference.
Win Rate 2-Year
Win Rate 1-Year Return
from Bottom Bottom vs Top
Spread
⚠️ Note: Bitcoin has only ~15 years of history and 4 cycles, so the statistical sample is limited. These are reference indicators only — past performance does not guarantee future results. All decisions and responsibility are your own.